“Investors’ Confidence remains in ‘bearish’ zone

Government stimulus package and fund inflow to boost sentiment

Trade wars and international conflicts hold back sentiment”

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                                                                      FETCO Press Release: 8 May 2025

 

Kobsak Pootrakool, Chairman of the Federation of Thai Capital Market Organizations (FETCO), revealed that the FETCO Investor Confidence Index (FETCO ICI) in April 2025 (conducted during 21-30 April 2025), which anticipated the market condition over the next three months, remains in ‘bearish’ zone at 64.10. The government’s stimulus packet is the most supportive factor, followed by fund inflow and tourism recovery. However, trade war, international conflicts, and local political situation weigh on sentiment.

 

Highlights of FETCO Investor Confidence Index surveyed in April 2025 are as follows.

  • Overall FETCO Investor Confidence index for the next three months (July 2025) is in “bearish” zone (40-79 of FETCO ICI Criterion) at 10.
  • Confidence of retail investor, proprietary investor and foreign investor is in “bearish” zone while that of institutional investor is in “bullish” zone.
  • Most attractive sector is Banking (BANK).
  • Least attractive sector to investors is Automotive (AUTO).
  • Most influential factor driving the Thai stock market is the government stimulus package.
  • Most important factor impeding the Thai stock market is trade war.

 

“The survey results in April 2025 show that confidence of retail investor is up 9.9 percent to 42.65, proprietary investors steady at 60.00, institutional investors up 17.7 percent to 130.77 and foreign investors also unchanged at 66.67.

 

In April, the Thai capital market was fluctuated due to several factors including the U.S. tariffs, slow recovery of local economy, lower-than-expected tourism recovery as well as Moody’s revising Thailand’s outlook to Negative from Stable. However, Monetary Policy Committee’s decision to cut its policy rate by 25 basis points to 1.75 percent helped offset some losses. At month end, the SET Index closed at 1,197.26, up 3.4 percent from the previous month with an average daily trading volume of THB 42,025 million. Foreign investors were net sellers of THB 14,588 million and they have cashed out THB 54,567 million from Jan-April, 2025.

 

External factors to monitor includes the U.S. trade policy, which includes reciprocal tariffs between the U.S. and major economies; global economic slowdown; lingering Russia-Ukraine conflicts; and escalating tensions between India and Pakistan over Kashmir. Locally, eyes are on trade negotiation between Thailand and the U.S.; an investment increase in the Thai stock market during May and June as investors will be allowed to switch their investment from long-term equity fund (LTF) units into the Thai ESG Extra Fund (ESGX) and increase their investment in ESGX while enjoying tax benefit worth up to THB 600,000.”