“Investors’ Confidence retreats to “bearish” zone

Economic recovery and fund inflow to boost sentiment

International conflicts and import-export cloud”

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                                                                      FETCO Press Release: 13 January 2025

 

Kobsak Pootrakool, Chairman of the Federation of Thai Capital Market Organizations (FETCO), revealed that the FETCO Investor Confidence Index (FETCO ICI) in December 2024 (conducted during 18-31 December 2024), which anticipated the market condition over the next three months, falls to “bearish” zone at 78.52. Local economic recovery is the most supportive factor, followed by fund inflow and tourism recovery. However, international conflicts, import-export and inflation situation cloud confidence.

 

Highlights of FETCO Investor Confidence Index surveyed in December 2024 are as follows.

  • Overall FETCO Investor Confidence index for the next three months (March 2025) is in “bearish” zone (40-79 of FETCO ICI Criterion) at 52.
  • Confidence of retail investor is in “neutral” zone while that of proprietary, institutional, and foreign investors is in “bearish” zone.
  • Most attractive sector is Commerce (COMM).
  • Least attractive sector to investors is Electronic Components (ETRON).
  • Most influential factor driving the Thai stock market is local economic recovery.
  • Most important factor impeding the Thai stock market is international conflicts.

 

“The survey results in December 2024 show that confidence of investors across all types retreats, retail investors down 15.6 percent to 85.71, proprietary investors down 22.2 percent to 70.00, institutional investors down 34.2 percent to 77.78 and foreign investors down 43.7 percent to 75.00.

 

In December, SET Index moved in tight range amid lackluster trade with continued selling spree by foreign investors. The government’s 2025 economic stimulus measures announced plus buying into tax benefit funds helped cushion the downside. At month-end, SET Index closed at 1,400.21, down 1.9 percent from the previous month with an average daily trading volume of THB 40,704 million. Foreign investors were net sellers of THB 10,552 million. Their net selling totaled THB 146,906 million from Jan-Dec.

 

External factors to monitor include the inauguration of Donald Trump as the president of the United States to be taken place on 20 January 2025. The U.S. trade policy announcement is in the focus as it will impact other countries’ economic policy. The lingering geopolitical conflicts and China’s trend of economic slowdown are also on the radar. Locally, eyes are on impact to Thailand’s exports as a result of trade barriers imposed by Trump 2.0. Investors also monitor the economic recovery after budget disbursement has been rolled out, which will help boost public investment and drive the economy. Other factors include the Bank of Thailand’s dovish move on its policy rate, tourism recovery and earnings announcement of listed companies.”