“Survey found investor confidence remains bullish,

supported by hopes on COVID-19 vaccine distribution and listed companies’ performance,

despite lingering worries over latest wave of outbreak and domestic economic recession”

                                                                                                FETCO Press Release: Wednesday, May 5, 2021

Paiboon Nalinthrangkurn, Federation of Thai Capital Market Organization (FETCO) Chairman, revealed that the April-2021 FETCO Investor Confidence Index (ICI) for the next three months fell 14.6% from the previous month’s level to 124.37 but remained in “bullish” zone, with investors’ high hopes on the distribution of COVID-19 vaccine to alleviate the pandemic as the strongest supporting factor, followed by improved listed companies’ performances and China’s economic conditions.  At the same time, the latest resurgence of COVID-19 in Thailand and the country’s economic recession as well as rising household debt were top issues that have dented investor confidence.

The results of April-2021 FETCO Investor Confidence Index (ICI) can be summarized as follows.

  • Overall FETCO ICI for the next three months (July 2021) remains “bullish” (index range of 120-159), although it fell 14.6% from the previous month’s level of 124.37.
  • Almost every investor group’s confidence was in “bullish” territory, except that of local institutional investors, which was in “neutral” zone.
  • The most attractive sector is the Petrochemicals & Chemicals (PETRO) sector.
  • The most influential factor driving the Thai stock market is the COVID-19 vaccine distribution plan.
  • The least attractive sector is the Fashion (FASHION) sector.
  • The most important factor impeding the Thai stock market is the resurgence of COVID-19.

“The results of the April-2021 survey showed confidence in every investor group fell, with retail ICI dropped 7% to 129.70, while proprietary ICI also down 11% to 137.50, local institutes ICI fallen 37% to 97.44 and foreign ICI declined 20% to 120.00.

In April 2021, SET Index fluctuated in a range of 1,541.12 and 1596.27, under the pressure of the resurgence of COVID-19 originated from nightlife establishments in Bangkok and spread to many provinces during the Songkran holiday period, during which many traveled back to their hometowns.  As a result, the new COVID-19 infections have risen to more than 1,000 per day.  Investor confidence has also been hit by heavy losses on Wall Street and the announcement of the nearly doubling of capital gains tax rate in the United States.  However, the Thai stock market has benefited from the government’s additional vaccine procurement plan and the Bank of Thailand (BOT)’s THB 350-billion assistance measures for businesses affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as the 8.5% y-o-y expansion of Thailand’s March 2021 exports.  At the end of April, SET Index closed at 1,583.13, down 0.26% from the preceding month.

Overseas factors that need to be closely monitored include the clarity of the U.S. government’s economic stimulus and its plan to increase in corporate and personal income tax rates, as well as the Chinese economy which grew 18.3 percent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2021. In addition, the resurgence of a new COVID-19 variant in India, and the lockdown in many countries, such as Japan and Germany, are also critical factors that impact the global economy.  In terms of domestic factors, they are such as the resurgence of COVID-19, which is a key risk for the local economy, the procurement of additional vaccine supply and the speeding up of the vaccination to create herd immunity, the government’s additional economic stimulus for businesses that have been shut down due to the virus outbreak in their areas, and listed companies’ 1Q/2021 performances.”