October survey results show the FETCO Investor Confidence Index (ICI) dropping but staying neutral for the third consecutive month. Foreign investors dropped from the previous month’s bullish into the neutral zone. Retail investor and local institutional investor ICIs dropped but remained neutral, while proprietary trader ICI stayed unchanged and in the neutral zone.
During October, the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) Index experienced stable movement in a slightly downward direction within the range of 1600–1630 points, though the index dropped at the end of the month to 1590–1600 points due to uncertainty about the world economy, concern about international trade negotiations, the risks facing exports, and worries about listed company performance in the third quarter. Investment trends for the next three months show the factors bolstering investor confidence the most are expectations of another 0.25% interest rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve, followed by the domestic economy and international capital flows. Meanwhile, investors are closely monitoring international and geopolitical conflicts, and the progress of trade negotiations between the United States and China, although there has been some easing of the trade situation as the United States has suspended tariff increases on some Chinese imports. Other factors negatively impacting investor confidence include listed company earnings and the slowdown in the domestic economy. International economic factors that investors are keeping an eye on include: the risk of recession in the world economy; the trends in U.S. and European monetary policies; progress in U.S.–China trade negotiations; the future of BREXIT with the expected extension to January of next year; and the direction of Chinese loan interest rate cuts and fiscal policy being implemented to ease economic conditions from the ongoing trade war. Meanwhile, domestic issues being closely watched include the performance of listed companies; measures to stabilize the appreciation of the baht, which is impacting both exports and tourism; as well as the effect of the cancellation of some GSP privileges for Thai products exported to the US.