“Investor Confidence Index Shifts to “Bullish” Zone

Stimulus Measures and Easing Global Conflicts Drive Market Optimism

European Economic Headwinds and Fed Stance Continue to Undermine Confidence”

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                                                                      FETCO Press Release: 6 July 2026

 

Paiboon Nalinthrangkurn, Chairman of the Federation of Thai Capital Market Organizations (FETCO), stated that the FETCO Investor Confidence Index (FETCO ICI) for July, which measures market sentiment over the next three months (based on a survey conducted from June 22–30, 2026), remains in the “bullish” zone at 123.77. Investors anticipate that the government’s economic stimulus measures will be the most supportive factor, followed by the easing of international conflicts and the domestic economic recovery. Conversely, the European economic outlook, the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, and ongoing international conflicts continue to undermine investor confidence.

 

Highlights of FETCO Investor Confidence Index surveyed in June 2026 are as follows.

  • Overall FETCO Investor Confidence index for the next three months (September 2026) is in “bullish” zone (120-159 of FETCO ICI Criterion) at 123.77.
  • Confidence of retail investor is in ‘neutral’ zone while that of proprietary, institutional, and foreign investors is in “bullish” zone.
  • Most attractive sector is Commerce (COMM).
  • Least attractive sector for investors is Automotive (AUTO).
  • Most influential factor driving the Thai stock market is the government’s economic stimulus measures.
  • Most important factor impeding the Thai stock market is European economic situation.

 

“The June 2026 survey revealed that retail investor confidence fell by 11.7 percent to 106.74, while proprietary investor confidence increased by 3.7 percent to 133.33. Institutional investor confidence decreased by 14.3 percent to 128.57, and foreign investor confidence retreated by 33.3 percent to settle at 133.33.

 

In June, the SET Index moved within a tight range, pressured by external factors. These included rising global crude oil prices and global inflation concerns driven by ongoing conflicts in the Middle East; uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy; and the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, which signaled a conservative approach despite keeping rates on hold, prompting investors to scale back on risky assets. Additionally, economic growth in Europe slowed, with the European Central Bank (ECB) revising down its Eurozone GDP growth forecasts to 0.8 percent for 2026 and 1.2 percent for 2027. Amid persistent inflationary pressures, the ECB also raised its policy rate by 25 basis points in June. Despite these headwinds, the SET Index closed June at 1,591.24, marking a 1.46 percent increase from the previous month. Average daily trading volume stood at THB 77,436 million, with foreign investors serving as net buyers of THB 6,996 million for the month, bringing their year-to-date net buying position to THB 27,000 million.

 

Key external factors to monitor moving forward include geopolitical developments in the Middle East, where the U.S. and Iran have reached a “60-day roadmap” agreement negotiated in Switzerland, paving the way toward a comprehensive peace deal. Markets will also closely watch the impact of U.S. tariffs, the progress of negotiations with trading partners, and the ECB’s interest rate trajectory following its hawkish signals tied to the energy crisis. On the domestic front, critical factors to monitor include the upcoming release of listed companies’ second-quarter earnings, Thai Baht movements, and the recovery trend of the tourism sector in the second half of the year.”