“Investor Confidence remains in ‘neutral zone

Investors expect listed companies’ earnings and easing Russia-Ukraine conflict to boost confidence

Worries on Russia-Ukraine situation and Fed’s interest rate policy hold back confidence”

—————————————————————————————————————————-

                                                                       FETCO Press Release: Monday, 4 April 2022

 

Paiboon Nalinthrangkurn, Chairman of the Federation of Thai Capital Market Organizations (FETCO), said “the FETCO Investor Confidence Index (FETCO ICI) in March 2022, which anticipated the market condition over the next three months, is at 117.92, up 4.3 percent from the previous month and remains in “neutral” zone. The most supportive factor is listed companies’ first quarter earnings, followed by hope that the Russia-Ukraine conflict will be eased and fund inflow. Investors are most concerned about the Russia-Ukraine situation, Fed’s hawkish interest rate policy and local economic situation.

Highlights of FETCO Investor Confidence Index surveyed in March 2022 are as follows.

  • Overall FETCO Investor Confidence index for the next three months (June 2022) is in “neutral” zone (80-119 of FETCO ICI Criterion), up 4.3 percent to 117.92 from the previous month.
  • Confidence of retail, local institutional investors and proprietary investors is in “neutral” zone while that of foreign investors is in “bullish” zone.
  • Most attractive sector to investors is Banking (BANK).
  • Least attractive sector to investors is Fashion (FASHION).
  • Most influential factor driving the Thai stock market is listed companies’ first quarter earnings.
  • Most important factor impeding the Thai stock market is concerns over Russia-Ukraine situation.

 

The survey result in March 2022 shows that retail investors’ confidence rises 25.1 percent to 113.24. That of proprietary traders decreases 22.2 percent to 100.00. Confidence of local institutional investors is up 5.9 percent to 100.00 while that of foreign investors falls 6.7 percent to 133.33.”

In March, the SET Index moved in tight 1,619.10—1,698.40 range. The benchmark experienced a drastic fall in the first week of the month, tracking global market plunge as the Russia-Ukraine conflict showed sign of continuity. However, the Thai stock market was resilient, thanks to the fund inflow. Foreign investors marked the third consecutive month as net buyers with THB 32,770.51 million of net buying in March. Foreign investors were net buyers of THB 108,340.35 million year-to-date. In addition, capital market positively reacted to the Centre for COVID-19 Situation Administration’s approval to lift the pre-departure RT-PCR requirement for fully vaccinated international arrivals beginning 1 April 2022, which triggered positive signal to Thailand’s tourism industry. The SET Index at end-March closed at 1,695.24, up 0.6 percent from the previous month.

External factors to monitor include impact from the Russia-Ukraine situation and international sanctions related to Russia, which will impact the global economic recovery. Rising commodities prices, especially crude oil will be in the radar. Market will also keep an eye on Fed’s interest rate hike although the first move of 25 bps increase was in line with market expectation. However, if the inflation rate continues to beat market expectation, this factor will be factored in the next Fed’s interest rate decision. In addition, easing COVID-19 measures in several countries are expected to help accelerate global tourism recovery. For domestic factors, investors focus on listed companies’ first quarter earnings and COVID-19 situation after Songkran holidays.”