“Investor Confidence Index Strengthens in “Bullish” Zone

Market Sentiment Lifted by Fund Inflows and Economic Stimulus

International Conflicts and Corporate Earnings Weigh on Confidence”

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          FETCO Press Release: 4 August 2026

 

Paiboon Nalinthrangkurn, Chairman of the Federation of Thai Capital Market Organizations (FETCO), stated that the FETCO Investor Confidence Index (FETCO ICI), which measures market sentiment over the next three months based on a survey conducted from July 20 – 31, 2026, has remained in the “bullish” zone at 146.72. Fund inflows were cited as the primary driver of confidence, followed by government economic stimulus packages and corporate earnings. Conversely, international conflicts were identified as the main drag on investor sentiment, followed by corporate earnings and the domestic political situation.

 

Highlights of FETCO Investor Confidence Index surveyed in July 2026 are as follows:

  • Overall FETCO Investor Confidence Index for the next three months (October 2026) is in the “bullish” zone (120–159 of FETCO ICI Criterion) at 72.
  • Confidence of retail investors is in the “neutral” zone, institutional investors in the “bullish” zone, while that of proprietary and foreign investors is in the “very bullish” zone.
  • Most attractive sector is Banking (BANK).
  • Least attractive sector to investors is Property Development (PROP).
  • Most influential factor driving the Thai stock market is fund inflows.
  • Most important factor impeding confidence is international conflicts.

 

“The July 2026 survey revealed mixed sentiment across investor categories. Retail investor confidence rose by 11.9 percent to 119.49, while proprietary investor confidence climbed 25.0 percent to 166.67. Institutional investor confidence contracted slightly by 1.8 percent to 126.32, while foreign investor confidence surged by 25.0 percent, reaching 166.67.

 

In July 2026, SET Index advanced through most of the month before encountering selling pressure toward the end of the month. The sentiment was supported by foreign fund inflows, underpinned by growing confidence among foreign investors in Thailand’s economic outlook, driven by expectations of political stability, policy continuity, and a recovery in exports. However, the market experienced volatility due to concerns over the U.S. Federal Reserve’s future monetary policy trajectory, U.S. trade policy uncertainty, ongoing Middle East tensions, and profit-taking in large-cap stocks following Q2/2026 corporate earnings announcements. By the end of July, the SET Index closed at 1,623.64, representing a 2.04 percent increase month-on-month. Average daily trading value stood at THB 87,397 million, with foreign investors acting as net buyers of THB 48,864 million for the month, bringing their year-to-date net buying position to THB 75,864 million.

 

Key domestic factors to monitor include the trajectory of Thailand’s economic recovery after the Ministry of Finance raised its 2026 GDP growth forecast to 2.5 percent, buoyed by exports and investment ; the continuity of foreign investment, particularly in targeted new industries; the outlook for the tourism sector in the second half of the year; and the gradual release of listed companies’ second-quarter 2026 earnings results. Internationally, uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy following its latest meeting, which maintained a cautious stance on inflation risks, oil price volatility stemming from tensions in the Middle East, which could affect capital flows and financial market volatility, and uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy, particularly the 12.5% tariff on Thai goods, remain factors to watch, as they could affect the outlook of Thailand’s export outlook and the competitiveness of Thai businesses.”