“ICI continues in ‘neutral’ zone for third consecutive month

Economic stimulus and local economic recovery to provide positive sentiment

International conflicts and inflation undermined”

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                                                                      FETCO Press Release: 8 May 2024

 

Kobsak Pootrakool, Chairman of the Federation of Thai Capital Market Organizations (FETCO), revealed that the FETCO Investor Confidence Index (FETCO ICI) in April 2024 (conducted during 19-30 April 2024), which anticipated the market condition over the next three months, is at 92.29, hanging in “neutral” zone for third consecutive month. The government’s stimulus package is the most positive factor to boost confidence, followed by local economic recovery and tourism recovery. However, international conflicts, inflation and listed companies’ earnings undermine confidence.

 

Highlights of FETCO Investor Confidence Index surveyed in April 2024 are as follows.

  • Overall FETCO Investor Confidence index for the next three months (July 2024) is in “neutral” zone (80-119 of FETCO ICI Criterion) at 92.29.
  • Confidence of retail and proprietary investors is in “bearish” zone. Institutional investors’ confidence is in “bullish” zone while that of foreign investors is in “neutral” zone.
  • Most attractive sector is Tourism and Leisure (TOURISM).
  • Least attractive sector to investors is Fashion (FASHION).
  • Most influential factor driving the Thai stock market is the government’s stimulus package.
  • Most important factor impeding the Thai stock market is international conflicts.

 

“The survey results in April 2024 show that retail investors’ confidence is down 28.9 percent to 76.47, proprietary investors down 31.9 percent to 77.78, institutional investors down 13.1 percent to 123.08 and foreign investors steady at 100.00.

 

SET Index moved in tight range early in April in a lackluster trade prior to long holidays in Thailand. Then before the 1Q earnings results announcement by listed companies, fund inflow drove the benchmark index to stay above 1,400. However, after trading resumed after Songkran holiday, the index plunged due to conflict between Iran and Israel while the U.S. economic grew at the slowest pace in two years, growing 1.6 percent in the first quarter of this year and missed market’s expectation of 2.4 percent expansion. At month-end, SET Index closed at 1,367.95, down 0.7 percent from the previous month with an average daily trading volume of THB 45,435 million. Foreign investors returned as net buyers of THB 3,787 million although their net selling totaled THB 65,075 million year to date.

 

External factors on the watch include trend of global interest rates, which remain steadily high while stubborn inflation may impact the Fed’s decision to keep its policy rate unchanged. Conflicts in the Middle East add to uncertainty. Locally, eyes are on short-term economic stimulus to support the economy, clarity on digital wallet handout scheme and trend of interest rate cut in the second half of this year.”