“ICI rises to ‘neutral’ zone

Investors expect tourism recovery and economic stimulus

Negative factors are Fed’s steady interest rate and inflation”


                                                                      FETCO Press Release: 7 March 2024


Kobsak Pootrakool, Chairman of the Federation of Thai Capital Market Organizations (FETCO), has announced the FETCO Investor Confidence Index based on a survey in February 2024 (conducted during 20-29 February 2024). “The FETCO ICI which anticipates the market condition over the next three months is at 106.88, up 37.8 percent from the previous month, rising to the ‘neutral’ zone. Investors consider tourism recovery as the most important factor behind the increased confidence, followed by economic stimulation measures from the government and the recovery of domestic economy. Meanwhile, the biggest negative factor that impedes investors’ confidence is the policy of the Federal Reserve (Fed) to hold its policy rate steady, followed by inflation and capital outflows.”


Highlights of the FETCO Investor Confidence Index surveyed in February 2024 are as follows.

  • Overall FETCO Investor Confidence Index for the next three months (May 2024) is in the ‘neutral’ zone (80-119 of FETCO ICI Criterion), up 37.8 percent from the previous month to 106.88.
  • Confidence of institutional investors is in the ‘bullish’ zone while retail, proprietary and foreign investors are ‘neutral’.
  • The most attractive sector is Tourism and Leisure (TOURISM).
  • The least attractive sector is Petrochemicals & Chemicals (PETRO)
  • The most influential factor driving the Thai stock market is tourism recovery.
  • The most important factor impeding the Thai stock market is Fed holding its policy rate steady.


“Looking into groups of investors, the survey in February 2024 shows that confidence grew by 31.4 percent to 115.00 among retail investors, increased by 14.3 percent to 100.00 among proprietary investors, fell by 11.9 percent to 122.00 among institutional investors and soared by 66.7 percent to 100.00 among foreign investors.


The SET Index in February increased from the previous month and followed the trends of global stock markets as investors expected Fed to lower its policy rate in the near future. In addition, there are measures to restore confidence in the Chinese stock exchange, the Bank of Japan’s continued signals for monetary easing, the better performances of listed companies and foreign investors’ return to buy Thai stocks. These resulted in the SET Index closing at 1,370.67 at the end of February, slightly up by 0.5 percent from a month earlier. Average daily trading volume was THB 47,265 million with foreign investors’ net buy of THB 3,246 million. However, since the beginning of this year, foreign investors have sold a net THB 27,624 million.


External factors to monitor include the monetary policies of major economies such as the United States, European countries and Japan which are likely to keep their interest rates steady for a certain period. Other significant external factors are the economic problems of China and prolonged international conflicts especially between Russia and Ukraine and among countries in the Middle East. Local factors to consider are the policy rate in the next meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee and local economic recovery as domestic consumption continuously recovers from the fourth quarter of 2023 to the first quarter of 2024.”