“Investors’ Confidence returns to ‘bullish’ territory

Focus on Thai political situation and fund inflow

Slowing economy and Baht swings remain headwinds”

—————————————————————————————————————————-

                                                                      FETCO Press Release: 8 January 2026

 

Kobsak Pootrakool, Chairman of the Federation of Thai Capital Market Organizations (FETCO), stated that the FETCO Investor Confidence Index (FETCO ICI) for December 2025—surveyed between 19–31 December 2025 and reflecting market expectations over the next three months—rose back into the “bullish” zone at 156.60. The local political situation was identified as the most supportive factor, followed by fund inflows and expectations of a Federal Reserve policy rate cut. Nevertheless, confidence continues to be constrained by the Thai economic slowdown, Baht volatility, and ongoing domestic political uncertainties.

 

Highlights of FETCO Investor Confidence Index surveyed in December 2025 are as follows.

  • Overall FETCO Investor Confidence index for the next three months (March 2026) is in “bullish” zone (120-159 of FETCO ICI Criterion) at 156.60.
  • Confidence of retail investor is in “neutral” zone. Confidence of proprietary and institutional investors is in “bullish” zone while that of foreign investors is in “very bullish” zone.
  • Most attractive sector is Banking (BANK).
  • Least attractive sector to investors is Fashion (FASHION).
  • Most influential factor driving the Thai stock market is local political situation.
  • Most important factor impeding the Thai stock market is local economic slowdown.

 

The December 2025 survey results indicate a broad-based improvement in investor confidence. Retail investor confidence increased by 8.2 percent to 102.67, while proprietary investor confidence rose by 12.0 percent to 140.00. Institutional investor confidence advanced 12.8 percent to 133.30, and foreign investor confidence surged 100 percent to 200.00.

 

During December, the SET Index trended downward, pressured by several factors including domestic political developments following the dissolution of the House of Representatives, tensions along the Thai–Cambodian border, and global equity market volatility triggered by a sell-off in U.S. large-cap technology stocks. Trading activity was also subdued as the year-end holiday period approached. Nonetheless, market sentiment was supported by positive developments, notably clearer political prospects following the announcement of a new election date, the Bank of Thailand’s 25-basis-point policy rate cut to 1.25 percent, and the Federal Reserve’s 25-basis-point rate cut to a target range of 3.50–3.75 percent. By month-end, the SET Index closed at 1,256.67, largely unchanged from the previous month, with an average daily trading value of THB 31,474 million. Foreign investors were net buyers of THB 6,202 million in December, although they remained net sellers of THB 107,097 million year to date.

 

Key external factors to monitor include clearer guidance on policy rate trajectories from the Federal Reserve and other major central banks, which directly influence Baht movements and foreign capital flows, as well as the global and Chinese economic outlooks that are critical to Thailand’s export sector. Geopolitical risks—including tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela, China and Taiwan, and Thailand and Cambodia—also warrant close attention. Domestically, important factors include measures to address Baht appreciation and its impact on exports, the consistency and effectiveness of government economic policies, progress on major investment projects, post-holiday private investment activity, and upcoming earnings announcements from listed companies.