Investor Confidence Index shifts to “neutral” zone

Expectations for recovery tied to geopolitical de-escalation and government stimulus measures

Confidence remains capped by Eurozone stagnation and global instability

 

                                                                      FETCO Press Release: 7 April 2026

 

Kobsak Pootrakool, Chairman of the Federation of Thai Capital Market Organizations (FETCO), stated that the FETCO Investor Confidence Index (FETCO ICI) retreats to the “neutral” zone at 93.07. The latest survey, covering the sentiment heading into the second quarter of 2026, indicates that the signal of international conflicts resolution remains the primary driver of confidence, followed by the government’s economic stimulus package and potential fund inflows. Conversely, the Eurozone’s economic slowdown, ongoing geopolitical tensions, and concerns over fiscal discipline remain the heavy weights on market sentiment.

 

Highlights of FETCO Investor Confidence Index surveyed in March 2026 are as follows.

  • Overall FETCO Investor Confidence index for the next three months (June 2026) is in “neutral” zone (80-119 of FETCO ICI Criterion) at 93.07.
  • Confidence of retail investors is in “bearish” zone while that of proprietary and foreign investors is in “neutral” zone. Institutional investor’s confidence is in “bullish” zone.
  • Most attractive sector is Energy and Utilities (ENERG).
  • Least attractive sector to investors is Finance & Securities (FIN).
  • Most influential factor driving the Thai stock market is signal of international conflicts to be resolved.
  • Most important factor impeding the Thai stock market is European zone economic situation.

             

“The March 2026 survey showed investor confidence across investor groups declined. Retail investor confidence fell by 51.0 percent to 74.19, while proprietary investor confidence decreased by 52.3 percent to 87.50. Institutional investor confidence retreated by 31.4 percent to 128.57, while foreign investor confidence decreased by 50.0 percent to 100.00.

Throughout March, the SET Index faced primary pressure from external variables. Specifically, the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy trajectory remained more restrictive for a longer duration than anticipated by the market, sparking a capital flight from emerging markets. Volatility in U.S. treasury yields and the strengthening U.S. dollar further dampened investor sentiment. Additionally, the heightened friction between the U.S. and Iran amplified geopolitical risks and pushed crude oil prices upward, exerting pressure on domestic inflation and corporate energy expenditures. By the end of March, the SET Index finished at 1,488.14, representing a 5.24 percent decline from the month prior. The average daily trading value stood at THB 75,321.79 million, with foreign investors acting as net sellers of THB 39,754 million, though they remained net buyers of THB 19,152 million in Q1/2026.

 

Critical external factors to track include the evolving conflict in the Middle East, which continues to influence energy pricing and the performance of risky assets. Upcoming policy meetings from major central banks, including the Fed, Bank of Japan, and European Central Bank, will be vital in determining foreign exchange trends and corporate financing costs. Notably, the Eurozone has lowered its growth forecasts due to energy price impacts, even as bond yields climb globally under inflationary strain. Domestically, rising energy costs remain a key concern as they may elevate the local inflation rate, thereby reducing the probability of a Bank of Thailand interest rate cut in the upcoming session and potentially raising the risk of future hikes. Furthermore, market attention remains fixed on government initiatives, particularly economic stimulus plans and strategies to mitigate the energy crisis.”