“Investors’ Confidence retreats to ‘bearish’ zone

Supportive factors pinned on Fed’s policy and economic stimulus

Local political situation and international conflicts cloud”

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                                                                      FETCO Press Release: 8 July 2025

 

Kobsak Pootrakool, Chairman of the Federation of Thai Capital Market Organizations (FETCO), revealed that the FETCO Investor Confidence Index (FETCO ICI) in June 2025 (conducted during 20-30 June 2025), which anticipated the market condition over the next three months, retreats to ‘bearish’ zone at 58.45. Fed keeping its policy on hold supports confidence, followed by government’s stimulus package and clarity of local political situation. However, the top three factors cloud sentiment comprise of local political situation, international conflicts, and fund outflow.

 

Highlights of FETCO Investor Confidence Index surveyed in June 2025 are as follows.

  • Overall FETCO Investor Confidence index for the next three months (September 2025) is in “bearish” zone (40-79 of FETCO ICI Criterion) at 45.
  • Confidence of retail investor, institutional investor and foreign investor is in “bearish” zone while that of proprietary investor is in “very bearish” zone.
  • Most attractive sector is Banking (BANK).
  • Least attractive sector for investors is Automotive (AUTO).
  • Most influential factor driving the Thai stock market is Fed keeping its policy rate unchanged.
  • Most important factor impeding the Thai stock market is local political situation.

 

“The survey results in June 2025 show that confidence of retail investor is down 14.2 percent to 50.70, proprietary investors down 61.9 percent to 28.57, institutional investors down 42.1 percent to 63.64 and foreign investors down 55.6 percent to 66.67.

 

In June, the Thai capital market was very volatile hurt by Iran-Israel conflict, Thai-Cambodia conflict and local political situation that raised investors’ concern over the government’s stability. In the meantime, Fed kept its policy rate steady at 4.25 percent – 4.50 percent while the Bank of Thailand’s Monetary Policy Committee kept its policy rate unchanged at 1.75 percent as market anticipated. At the month end, the SET Index closed at 1,089.56, down 5.19 percent from the previous month with an average daily trading volume of THB 39,663 million. Foreign investors were net sellers of THB 7,941 million and their net selling totaled THB 78,690 million in the first half of 2025.

 

External factors to monitor includes results of trade negotiation between the U.S. and its trade partners, conflicts in the Middle East that impacts oil prices and impact may give ripple effect to global economy. Locally, eyes are on progress of Thai-U.S. trade negotiation; the government’s stability that has been shattered after the Constitutional Court suspended Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra from duty on 1 July 2025, which could impact key economic policy implementation and hurt private sector’s long-term investment planning. In addition, the trend of economic slowdown in the latter half of this year hit by weakened exports and number of inbound tourists are also on the radar.”