Investors “very bullish”, ICI hitting record high

Fund inflow and economic stimulus measures to boost momentum

International conflicts and local political uncertainty undermine”

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                                                                      FETCO Press Release: 7 October 2024

 

Kobsak Pootrakool, Chairman of the Federation of Thai Capital Market Organizations (FETCO), revealed that the FETCO Investor Confidence Index (FETCO ICI) in September 2024 (conducted during 20-30 September 2024), which anticipated the market condition over the next three months, enters “very bullish” zone at 175.64, which is the record high since the survey has been conducted. Momentum is respectively boosted by fund inflow, government’s economic stimulus and Fed’s interest rate cut. However, international conflicts, local political uncertainty and Baht fluctuation hold back confidence.

 

Highlights of FETCO Investor Confidence Index surveyed in September 2024 are as follows.

  • Overall FETCO Investor Confidence index for the next three months (December 2024) is in “very bullish” zone (160-200 of FETCO ICI Criterion) at 164.
  • Confidence of retail and institutional investors is in “bullish” zone while that of proprietary and foreign investors is in “very bullish” zone.
  • Most attractive sector is Commerce (COMM).
  • Least attractive sector to investors is Automotive (AUTO).
  • Most influential factor driving the Thai stock market is the fund inflow.
  • Most important factor impeding the Thai stock market is international conflicts.

 

“The survey results in September 2024 show that confidence of investors across all types heads north, retail investors up 2.3 percent to 147.62, proprietary investors up 21.2 percent to 175.00, institutional investors up 16.7 percent to 140.00 and foreign investors up 60 percent to 200.00.

 

In September, SET Index continued to rise, thanks to the launch of THB 150,000 million Vayupak Fund, and the establishment of the new government while the digital wallet scheme kicking off and baht appreciating against US dollar. Additional supportive external factors included Fed’s first rate cut by 50 basis points, the first dovish move in four years and fund inflow. At month-end, SET Index closed at 1,448.83, up 6.6 percent from the previous month with an average daily trading volume of THB 62,503 million. Foreign investors reversed to net buyers of THB 28,904 million. However, they remained as net sellers of THB 94,789 million during Jan-Sep 2024.

 

External factors to monitor include the U.S. presidential elections, trend of policy rate cut in key economies such as Euro zone, British and Japan. Eyes are also on China’s economic stimulus packages to boost economy and capital market and escalating tension in the Middle East. Locally, focus is on economic recovery, which is expected to be boosted by tourism and domestic consumption; baht volatility which may impact exports; the Bank of Thailand’s Monetary Policy Committee’s policy rate move; 3Q/2024 earnings; and the fund from Vayupak Fund beginning to be invested.”