Investors’ Confidence improves to “neutral” zone

Fund inflow and Thai economic recovery tipped as supportive factors

Economic retreat and international conflicts hold back confidence”

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                                                                      FETCO Press Release: 6 August 2025

 

Kobsak Pootrakool, Chairman of the Federation of Thai Capital Market Organizations (FETCO), revealed that the FETCO Investor Confidence Index (FETCO ICI) in July 2025 (conducted during 21-31 July 2025), which anticipated the market condition over the next three months, improves to ‘neutral’ zone at 81.06. Fund inflow is the most supportive factor boosting confidence, followed by local economic recovery and global commodities prices adjustment. However, Thai economic retreat undermines confidence the most, followed by international conflicts and local political uncertainty.

 

Highlights of FETCO Investor Confidence Index surveyed in July 2025 are as follows.

  • Overall FETCO Investor Confidence index for the next three months (October 2025) is in “neutral” zone (80-119 of FETCO ICI Criterion) at 06.
  • Confidence of institutional investor is in “bullish” zone, retail investors in “neutral” zone, while that of proprietary and foreign investors is in “bearish” zone.
  • Most attractive sector is Health Care Services (HELTH).
  • Least attractive sector for investors is Property Development (PROP).
  • Most influential factor driving the Thai stock market is fund inflow.
  • Most important factor impeding the Thai stock market is local economic retreat.

 

“The survey results in July 2025 show that confidence of retail investor is up 71.6 percent to 87.01, proprietary investors up 172.2 percent to 77.78, institutional investors up 117.6 percent to 138.46 and foreign investors unchanged at 66.67.

 

In the first half of July, the Thai capital market was hurt by political uncertainty after Thailand’s Constitutional Court suspended Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra from duty over leaked audio call with Cambodia’s Hun Sen, which has led to border dispute. Also, the first round of Thai-U.S. tariff negotiation was intensified as U.S. President Donald Trump insisted on 36 percent tariff rate against Thailand while other ASEAN countries successfully secured a tariff rate reduction deal. However, the situation was improved after Thailand and Cambodia agreed on the ceasefire while the U.S. tariff rate was reduced to 19 percent as peers’. At the month end, the SET Index closed at 1,242.35, up 14.02 percent from the previous month with an average daily trading volume of THB 41,971 million. Foreign investors returned to net buyers of THB 16,121 million. However, they remain as net sellers of THB 62,569 million year to date.

 

External factors to monitor includes the U.S. policy rate direction after trade negotiations with several countries were concluded, China’s stimulus package, international conflicts in the Middle East and Thailand-Cambodia dispute. Locally, eyes are on the Constitutional Court’s verdict whether Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra should be terminated from the position, which could impact the government’s stability and could lead to house dissolution. Investors also monitor the Monetary Policy’s policy rate direction in the third quarter and 2Q earnings results of listed companies while expect further inflows in August as Thai stocks may gain additional weight in the MSCI and FTSE indices.”